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This page provides information about a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the USA U23 Women 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. The overall purpose of the study is 1) to confirm that the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting the results with others in rowing, and 2) to bring explanations from which we can learn in rowing, other sports, and business. | This page provides information about a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the USA U23 Women 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. The overall purpose of the study is 1) to confirm that the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting the results with others in rowing, and 2) to bring explanations from which we can learn in rowing, other sports, and business. | ||
Revision as of 00:49, 30 January 2024
This page provides information about a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the USA U23 Women 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. The overall purpose of the study is 1) to confirm that the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting the results with others in rowing, and 2) to bring explanations from which we can learn in rowing, other sports, and business.
According to the analysis, the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team achieved the largest winning margin in all 8+ events at the Senior and U23 levels since 1977. This was a monumental achievement in the sport of rowing, setting a new world record.
We were fortunate to obtain GRI's behavior-factor profiles of the team before the race, providing additional input on the individuals' character and style and on the "quiet diversity" of their team. Individual interviews were conducted at the end of 2023 to further progress in our research and analyze the crew's exceptional winning margin.
Margin's Plot
This plot illustrates the winning margin between the first and second 8+ boats since 1977, men and women, U23 and senior, at a World Championship level. The arrow shows where the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ boat stand. See all the details of the data below, which were extracted from the World Rowing website. See also the details of the results of the 2016 US Women’s U23 8+ boat.
The margins were ordered by increasing value, from the smallest to the highest, in each of the four categories. Although the results are comparable, analysis by category may evidence striking differences between men and women, and between U23 and senior levels.
Results Analysis
To determine whether the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ result was exceptional, we needed to compare it to other results at a similar world championship level. We examined the winning margin of all 8+ events at the World Championships and Olympics for U23 Women, U23 Men, Senior Women, and Senior Men. It is worth noting that the U23 championship for men and women only began in 2005 and 2006, respectively.
Anti-doping has been a matter of concern in the sport of rowing since the 1960s. The International Rowing Federation (FISA) was the first to introduce an anti-doping regulation in 1976, which was much earlier than the establishment of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) in 1999 and the adoption of the anti-doping code at the Sydney Games in 2000. As a result, only the results from 1977 onwards are taken into account for consideration.
Both Senior and U23 results tend to be comparable, which is why we included both. However, Junior results that are too distant from the senior level were not included.
Of the 17 data points collected on the U23 Women’s category, the 2016 US 8+ was the only crew to have a winning margin over 7 seconds, an incredible 3.56 seconds above the average winning margin. Furthermore, across all 122 data points collected, we found the average winning margin to be 2.05 sec, 5.11 sec less than the 7.16 sec winning margin of the 2016 USA Women’s 8+.
We didn't find evidence that the 2016 results would result from any external factors to the team efforts, such as the weather conditions at a specific location on the water. All athletes complied with doping regulations. Other boats from Great Britain, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, and Germany were equally engaged in the race.
Results Data
The tables below show the results of men and women at the U23 (Under 23 years old) and senior categories at a World Championship level, Olympics included. Since we were interested in testing how much the first boat won, only the two first results are included in the tables. Weather conditions can significantly vary from race to race; thus, the time of the winning boat doesn't provide an accurate assessment of how well it did when comparing the results with other years. However, the margin between the first and second boat does. This does happen in other sports like sailing, but not in others such as swimming.
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | United States | 6:09.14 | Germany | 6:13.34 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | United States | 6:23.03 | Great Britain | 6:27.81 | 4.78 |
| 2021 | United States | 6:16.69 | Netherlands | 6:20.43 | 3.74 |
| 2019 | Netherlands | 6:17.93 | Great Britain | 6:22.52 | 4.59 |
| 2018 | Canada | 6:04.61 | Netherlands | 6:06.58 | 1.97 |
| 2017 | Canada | 6:09.89 | United States | 6:16.44 | 6.55 |
| 2016 | United States | 6:36.90 | Great Britain | 6:44.06 | 7.16* |
| 2015 | United States | 6:19.49 | Russia | 6:22.02 | 2.53 |
| 2014 | United States | 6:07.88 | Great Britain | 6:11.76 | 3.88 |
| 2013 | United States | 6:16.81 | Great Britain | 6:19.15 | 2.34 |
| 2012 | United States | 6:25.92 | Germany | 6:30.47 | 4.55 |
| 2011 | Canada | 6:03.23 | New Zealand | 6:06.02 | 2.79 |
| 2010 | United States | 6:31.97 | New Zealand | 6:36.48 | 4.51 |
| 2009 | Great Britain | 6:20.71 | United States | 6:21.80 | 1.09 |
| 2008 | United States | 6:36.01 | Poland | 6:39.72 | 3.71 |
| 2007 | Belarus | 6:15.20 | Germany | 6:15.43 | 0.23 |
| 2006 | United States | 6:06.68 | Belarus | 6:08.98 | 2.3 |
| Average | 3.6 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 |
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Great Britain | 5:26.51 | United States | 5:28.90 | 2.39 |
| 2022 | Great Britain | 5:51.71 | United States | 5:53.97 | 2.26 |
| 2021 | Great Britain | 5:34.32 | United States | 5:34.55 | 0.21 |
| 2019 | Great Britain | 5:34.30 | United States | 5:36.21 | 1.91 |
| 2018 | United States | 5:22.48 | Great Britain | 5:24.93 | 2.45 |
| 2017 | Netherlands | 5:29.55 | Romania | 5:31.57 | 2.02 |
| 2016 | Netherlands | 5:54.10 | Great Britain | 5:57.26 | 3.16 |
| 2015 | Germany | 5:33.56 | United States | 5:36.49 | 2.93 |
| 2014 | New Zealand | 5:28.82 | Australia | 5:30.45 | 1.63 |
| 2013 | New Zealand | 5:28.63 | United States | 5:31.79 | 3.16 |
| 2012 | United States | 5:47.66 | Germany | 5:48.22 | 0.56 |
| 2011 | United States | 5:24.31 | Czech Republic | 5:26.21 | 1.9 |
| 2010 | Germany | 5:44.78 | United States | 5:47.48 | 2.7 |
| 2009 | Poland | 5:32.77 | Germany | 5:34.11 | 1.34 |
| 2008 | United States | 5:49.42 | Canada | 5:53.30 | 3.88 |
| 2007 | Estonia | 5:33.90 | Germany | 5:34.29 | 0.39 |
| 2006 | Canada | 5:30.72 | Germany | 5:31.78 | 1.06 |
| 2005 | Romania | 5:50.90 | Italy | 5:51.82 | 0.92 |
| Average | 1.9 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 |
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Romania | 6:01.28 | United States | 6:03.73 | 2.45 |
| 2022 | Romania | 6:01.14 | Netherlands | 6:05.04 | 3.9 |
| 2021 | Canada | 5:59.13 | New Zealand | 6:00.04 | 0.91 |
| 2019 | New Zealand | 5:56.91 | Australia | 5:59.63 | 2.72 |
| 2018 | United States | 6:00.97 | Canada | 6:03.05 | 2.08 |
| 2017 | Romania | 6:06.40 | Canada | 6:07.09 | 0.69 |
| 2016 | United States | 6:01.49 | Great Britain | 6:03.49 | 2 |
| 2015 | United States | 6:05.65 | New Zealand | 6:08.52 | 2.87 |
| 2014 | United States | 5:56.83 | Canada | 5:59.66 | 2.83 |
| 2013 | United States | 6:02.14 | Canada | 6:07.04 | 4.9 |
| 2012 | United States | 6:10.59 | Canada | 6:12.06 | 1.47 |
| 2011 | United States | 6:03.65 | Canada | 6:04.39 | 0.74 |
| 2010 | United States | 6:12.42 | Canada | 6:16.12 | 3.7 |
| 2009 | United States | 6:05.34 | Romania | 6:06.94 | 1.6 |
| 2008 | United States | 6:05.34 | Netherlands | 6:07.22 | 1.88 |
| 2007 | United States | 6:17.21 | Romania | 6:18.34 | 1.13 |
| 2006 | United States | 5:55.50 | Germany | 5:57.29 | 1.79 |
| 2005 | Australia | 5:58.10 | Romania | 5:59.50 | 1.4 |
| 2004 | Romania | 6:17.70 | United States | 6:19.56 | 1.86 |
| 2003 | Germany | 6:41.23 | Romania | 6:44.63 | 3.4 |
| 2002 | United States | 6:04.25 | Australia | 6:05.10 | 0.85 |
| 2001 | Australia | 6:03.66 | Romania | 6:04.96 | 1.3 |
| 2000 | Romania | 6:06.44 | Netherlands | 6:09.39 | 2.95 |
| 1999 | Romania | 6:47.66 | United States | 6:48.81 | 1.15 |
| 1998 | Romania | 6:14.62 | United States | 6:15.81 | 1.19 |
| 1997 | Romania | 6:02.40 | Canada | 6:07.18 | 4.78 |
| 1996 | Romania | 6:19.73 | Canada | 6:24.05 | 4.32 |
| 1995 | United States | 6:50.73 | Romania | 6:52.76 | 2.03 |
| 1994 | Germany | 6:07.42 | United States | 6:08.24 | 0.82 |
| 1993 | Romania | 6:18.88 | United States | 6:20.42 | 1.54 |
| 1992 | Canada | 6:02.62 | Romania | 6:06.26 | 3.64 |
| 1991 | Canada | 6:28.20 | URS | 6:28.73 | 0.53 |
| 1990 | Romania | 5:59.26 | United States | 6:01.67 | 2.41 |
| 1989 | Romania | 6:07.92 | Germany | 6:08.19 | 0.27 |
| 1988 | RDA | 6:15.17 | Romania | 6:17.44 | 2.27 |
| 1987 | Romania | 6:55.61 | United States | 6:57.27 | 1.66 |
| 1986 | URS | 6:08.76 | RDA | 6:09.77 | 1.01 |
| 1985 | URS | 6:14.00 | RDA | 6:14.89 | 0.89 |
| Average | 2.1 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 |
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Great Britain | 5:24.20 | Netherlands | 5:25.23 | 1.03 |
| 2022 | Great Britain | 5:24.41 | Netherlands | 5:25.52 | 1.11 |
| 2021 | New Zealand | 5:24.64 | Germany | 5:25.60 | 0.96 |
| 2019 | Germany | 5:19.41 | Netherlands | 5:19.96 | 0.55 |
| 2018 | Germany | 5:24.31 | Australia | 5:26.11 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | Germany | 5:26.85 | United States | 5:28.45 | 1.6 |
| 2016 | Great Britain | 5:29.63 | Germany | 5:30.96 | 1.33 |
| 2015 | Great Britain | 5:35.18 | Germany | 5:36.36 | 0.18 |
| 2014 | Great Britain | 5:24.11 | Germany | 5:24.77 | 0.66 |
| 2013 | Great Britain | 5:30.35 | Germany | 5:30.89 | 0.54 |
| 2012 | Germany | 5:48.75 | Canada | 5:49.98 | 1.23 |
| 2011 | Germany | 5:28.81 | Great Britain | 5:30.83 | 2.02 |
| 2010 | Germany | 5:33.84 | Great Britain | 5:34.46 | 0.62 |
| 2009 | Germany | 5:24.13 | Canada | 5:27.15 | 3.02 |
| 2008 | Canada | 5:23.89 | Great Britain | 5:25.11 | 1.22 |
| 2007 | Canada | 5:34.92 | Germany | 5:37.19 | 2.27 |
| 2006 | Germany | 5:21.85 | Italy | 5:23.29 | 1.44 |
| 2005 | United States | 5:22.75 | Italy | 5:24.01 | 1.26 |
| 2004 | United States | 5:42.48 | Netherlands | 5:43.75 | 1.27 |
| 2003 | Canada | 6:00.44 | United States | 6:01.46 | 1.02 |
| 2002 | Canada | 5:26.92 | Germany | 5:28.16 | 1.24 |
| 2001 | Romania | 5:27.48 | Croatia | 5:28.47 | 0.99 |
| 2000 | Great Britain | 5:33.08 | Australia | 5:33.88 | 0.8 |
| 1999 | United States | 6:01.58 | Great Britain | 6:03.27 | 1.69 |
| 1998 | United States | 5:38.78 | Germany | 5:39.48 | 0.7 |
| 1997 | United States | 5:27.20 | Romania | 5:27.76 | 0.56 |
| 1996 | Netherlands | 5:42.74 | Germany | 5:44.58 | 1.84 |
| 1995 | Germany | 5:53.40 | Netherlands | 5:55.54 | 2.14 |
| 1994 | United States | 5:24.50 | Netherlands | 5:25.10 | 0.6 |
| 1993 | Germany | 5:37.08 | Romania | 5:39.33 | 2.25 |
| 1992 | Canada | 5:29.53 | Romania | 5:29.67 | 0.14 |
| 1991 | Germany | 5:50.98 | Canada | 5:51.68 | 0.7 |
| 1990 | RFA | 5:26.62 | Canada | 5:27.57 | 0.95 |
| 1989 | RFA | 5:43.88 | RDA | 5:45.70 | 1.82 |
| 1988 | RFA | 5:46.05 | URS | 5:48.01 | 1.96 |
| 1987 | United States | 5:58.83 | Germany | 6:01.94 | 3.11 |
| 1986 | Australia | 5:33.54 | URS | 5:37.61 | 4.07 |
| 1985 | URS | 5:33.71 | Italy | 5:34.58 | 0.87 |
| 1984 | Canada | 5:41.32 | United States | 5:41.74 | 0.42 |
| 1983 | New Zealand | 5:43.39 | RDA | 5:35.94 | 1.55 |
| 1982 | New Zealand | 5:36.99 | RDA | 5:39.17 | 2.18 |
| 1981 | URS | 6:02.30 | Great Britain | 6:04.31 | 2.01 |
| 1980 | RDA | 5:49.05 | Great Britain | 5:51.92 | 2.87 |
| 1979 | RDA | 5:36.41 | New Zealand | 5:39.92 | 3.51 |
| 1978 | RDA | 5:54.25 | RFA | 5:55.17 | 0.92 |
| 1977 | RDA | 5:45.36 | URS | 5:50.71 | 5.35 |
| Average | 1.9 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 |
References
For results of all races in the World Rowing website https://worldrowing.com)
For results of the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ boat here: https://worldrowing.com/event/2016-world-rowing-under-23-championships/