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This page provides information about a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the USA U23 Women 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. The overall purpose of the study is 1) to confirm that the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting the results with others in rowing, and 2) to bring explanations from which we can learn in rowing, other sports, and business.
This page provides information about a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the USA U23 Women 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. The overall purpose of the study is 1) to confirm that the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting the results with others in rowing, and 2) to bring explanations from which we can learn in rowing, other sports, and business.

Revision as of 00:49, 30 January 2024

U23 W8+ 3-2.jpg

This page provides information about a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the USA U23 Women 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. The overall purpose of the study is 1) to confirm that the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting the results with others in rowing, and 2) to bring explanations from which we can learn in rowing, other sports, and business.

According to the analysis, the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ team achieved the largest winning margin in all 8+ events at the Senior and U23 levels since 1977. This was a monumental achievement in the sport of rowing, setting a new world record.

We were fortunate to obtain GRI's behavior-factor profiles of the team before the race, providing additional input on the individuals' character and style and on the "quiet diversity" of their team. Individual interviews were conducted at the end of 2023 to further progress in our research and analyze the crew's exceptional winning margin.


Margin's Plot

This plot illustrates the winning margin between the first and second 8+ boats since 1977, men and women, U23 and senior, at a World Championship level. The arrow shows where the results of the 2016 USA Women U23 8+ boat stand. See all the details of the data below, which were extracted from the World Rowing website. See also the details of the results of the 2016 US Women’s U23 8+ boat.

The margins were ordered by increasing value, from the smallest to the highest, in each of the four categories. Although the results are comparable, analysis by category may evidence striking differences between men and women, and between U23 and senior levels.

Difference plot 2016 w8+ U23.png

Results Analysis

To determine whether the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ result was exceptional, we needed to compare it to other results at a similar world championship level. We examined the winning margin of all 8+ events at the World Championships and Olympics for U23 Women, U23 Men, Senior Women, and Senior Men. It is worth noting that the U23 championship for men and women only began in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

Anti-doping has been a matter of concern in the sport of rowing since the 1960s. The International Rowing Federation (FISA) was the first to introduce an anti-doping regulation in 1976, which was much earlier than the establishment of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) in 1999 and the adoption of the anti-doping code at the Sydney Games in 2000. As a result, only the results from 1977 onwards are taken into account for consideration.

Both Senior and U23 results tend to be comparable, which is why we included both. However, Junior results that are too distant from the senior level were not included.

Of the 17 data points collected on the U23 Women’s category, the 2016 US 8+ was the only crew to have a winning margin over 7 seconds, an incredible 3.56 seconds above the average winning margin. Furthermore, across all 122 data points collected, we found the average winning margin to be 2.05 sec, 5.11 sec less than the 7.16 sec winning margin of the 2016 USA Women’s 8+.

We didn't find evidence that the 2016 results would result from any external factors to the team efforts, such as the weather conditions at a specific location on the water. All athletes complied with doping regulations. Other boats from Great Britain, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, and Germany were equally engaged in the race.

Results Data

The tables below show the results of men and women at the U23 (Under 23 years old) and senior categories at a World Championship level, Olympics included. Since we were interested in testing how much the first boat won, only the two first results are included in the tables. Weather conditions can significantly vary from race to race; thus, the time of the winning boat doesn't provide an accurate assessment of how well it did when comparing the results with other years. However, the margin between the first and second boat does. This does happen in other sports like sailing, but not in others such as swimming.

Women's U23
Year Winning Crew Time Second Place Time Margin(sec)
2023 United States 6:09.14 Germany 6:13.34 4.2
2022 United States 6:23.03 Great Britain 6:27.81 4.78
2021 United States 6:16.69 Netherlands 6:20.43 3.74
2019 Netherlands 6:17.93 Great Britain 6:22.52 4.59
2018 Canada 6:04.61 Netherlands 6:06.58 1.97
2017 Canada 6:09.89 United States 6:16.44 6.55
2016 United States 6:36.90 Great Britain 6:44.06 7.16*
2015 United States 6:19.49 Russia 6:22.02 2.53
2014 United States 6:07.88 Great Britain 6:11.76 3.88
2013 United States 6:16.81 Great Britain 6:19.15 2.34
2012 United States 6:25.92 Germany 6:30.47 4.55
2011 Canada 6:03.23 New Zealand 6:06.02 2.79
2010 United States 6:31.97 New Zealand 6:36.48 4.51
2009 Great Britain 6:20.71 United States 6:21.80 1.09
2008 United States 6:36.01 Poland 6:39.72 3.71
2007 Belarus 6:15.20 Germany 6:15.43 0.23
2006 United States 6:06.68 Belarus 6:08.98 2.3
Average 3.6
Standard Deviation 1.8


Men's U23
Year Winning Crew Time Second Place Time Margin(sec)
2023 Great Britain 5:26.51 United States 5:28.90 2.39
2022 Great Britain 5:51.71 United States 5:53.97 2.26
2021 Great Britain 5:34.32 United States 5:34.55 0.21
2019 Great Britain 5:34.30 United States 5:36.21 1.91
2018 United States 5:22.48 Great Britain 5:24.93 2.45
2017 Netherlands 5:29.55 Romania 5:31.57 2.02
2016 Netherlands 5:54.10 Great Britain 5:57.26 3.16
2015 Germany 5:33.56 United States 5:36.49 2.93
2014 New Zealand 5:28.82 Australia 5:30.45 1.63
2013 New Zealand 5:28.63 United States 5:31.79 3.16
2012 United States 5:47.66 Germany 5:48.22 0.56
2011 United States 5:24.31 Czech Republic 5:26.21 1.9
2010 Germany 5:44.78 United States 5:47.48 2.7
2009 Poland 5:32.77 Germany 5:34.11 1.34
2008 United States 5:49.42 Canada 5:53.30 3.88
2007 Estonia 5:33.90 Germany 5:34.29 0.39
2006 Canada 5:30.72 Germany 5:31.78 1.06
2005 Romania 5:50.90 Italy 5:51.82 0.92
Average 1.9
Standard Deviation 1.0


Women's Senior
Year Winning Crew Time Second Place Time Margin(sec)
2023 Romania 6:01.28 United States 6:03.73 2.45
2022 Romania 6:01.14 Netherlands 6:05.04 3.9
2021 Canada 5:59.13 New Zealand 6:00.04 0.91
2019 New Zealand 5:56.91 Australia 5:59.63 2.72
2018 United States 6:00.97 Canada 6:03.05 2.08
2017 Romania 6:06.40 Canada 6:07.09 0.69
2016 United States 6:01.49 Great Britain 6:03.49 2
2015 United States 6:05.65 New Zealand 6:08.52 2.87
2014 United States 5:56.83 Canada 5:59.66 2.83
2013 United States 6:02.14 Canada 6:07.04 4.9
2012 United States 6:10.59 Canada 6:12.06 1.47
2011 United States 6:03.65 Canada 6:04.39 0.74
2010 United States 6:12.42 Canada 6:16.12 3.7
2009 United States 6:05.34 Romania 6:06.94 1.6
2008 United States 6:05.34 Netherlands 6:07.22 1.88
2007 United States 6:17.21 Romania 6:18.34 1.13
2006 United States 5:55.50 Germany 5:57.29 1.79
2005 Australia 5:58.10 Romania 5:59.50 1.4
2004 Romania 6:17.70 United States 6:19.56 1.86
2003 Germany 6:41.23 Romania 6:44.63 3.4
2002 United States 6:04.25 Australia 6:05.10 0.85
2001 Australia 6:03.66 Romania 6:04.96 1.3
2000 Romania 6:06.44 Netherlands 6:09.39 2.95
1999 Romania 6:47.66 United States 6:48.81 1.15
1998 Romania 6:14.62 United States 6:15.81 1.19
1997 Romania 6:02.40 Canada 6:07.18 4.78
1996 Romania 6:19.73 Canada 6:24.05 4.32
1995 United States 6:50.73 Romania 6:52.76 2.03
1994 Germany 6:07.42 United States 6:08.24 0.82
1993 Romania 6:18.88 United States 6:20.42 1.54
1992 Canada 6:02.62 Romania 6:06.26 3.64
1991 Canada 6:28.20 URS 6:28.73 0.53
1990 Romania 5:59.26 United States 6:01.67 2.41
1989 Romania 6:07.92 Germany 6:08.19 0.27
1988 RDA 6:15.17 Romania 6:17.44 2.27
1987 Romania 6:55.61 United States 6:57.27 1.66
1986 URS 6:08.76 RDA 6:09.77 1.01
1985 URS 6:14.00 RDA 6:14.89 0.89
Average 2.1
Standard Deviation 1.2


Men's Senior
Year Winning Crew Time Second Place Time Margin(sec)
2023 Great Britain 5:24.20 Netherlands 5:25.23 1.03
2022 Great Britain 5:24.41 Netherlands 5:25.52 1.11
2021 New Zealand 5:24.64 Germany 5:25.60 0.96
2019 Germany 5:19.41 Netherlands 5:19.96 0.55
2018 Germany 5:24.31 Australia 5:26.11 1.8
2017 Germany 5:26.85 United States 5:28.45 1.6
2016 Great Britain 5:29.63 Germany 5:30.96 1.33
2015 Great Britain 5:35.18 Germany 5:36.36 0.18
2014 Great Britain 5:24.11 Germany 5:24.77 0.66
2013 Great Britain 5:30.35 Germany 5:30.89 0.54
2012 Germany 5:48.75 Canada 5:49.98 1.23
2011 Germany 5:28.81 Great Britain 5:30.83 2.02
2010 Germany 5:33.84 Great Britain 5:34.46 0.62
2009 Germany 5:24.13 Canada 5:27.15 3.02
2008 Canada 5:23.89 Great Britain 5:25.11 1.22
2007 Canada 5:34.92 Germany 5:37.19 2.27
2006 Germany 5:21.85 Italy 5:23.29 1.44
2005 United States 5:22.75 Italy 5:24.01 1.26
2004 United States 5:42.48 Netherlands 5:43.75 1.27
2003 Canada 6:00.44 United States 6:01.46 1.02
2002 Canada 5:26.92 Germany 5:28.16 1.24
2001 Romania 5:27.48 Croatia 5:28.47 0.99
2000 Great Britain 5:33.08 Australia 5:33.88 0.8
1999 United States 6:01.58 Great Britain 6:03.27 1.69
1998 United States 5:38.78 Germany 5:39.48 0.7
1997 United States 5:27.20 Romania 5:27.76 0.56
1996 Netherlands 5:42.74 Germany 5:44.58 1.84
1995 Germany 5:53.40 Netherlands 5:55.54 2.14
1994 United States 5:24.50 Netherlands 5:25.10 0.6
1993 Germany 5:37.08 Romania 5:39.33 2.25
1992 Canada 5:29.53 Romania 5:29.67 0.14
1991 Germany 5:50.98 Canada 5:51.68 0.7
1990 RFA 5:26.62 Canada 5:27.57 0.95
1989 RFA 5:43.88 RDA 5:45.70 1.82
1988 RFA 5:46.05 URS 5:48.01 1.96
1987 United States 5:58.83 Germany 6:01.94 3.11
1986 Australia 5:33.54 URS 5:37.61 4.07
1985 URS 5:33.71 Italy 5:34.58 0.87
1984 Canada 5:41.32 United States 5:41.74 0.42
1983 New Zealand 5:43.39 RDA 5:35.94 1.55
1982 New Zealand 5:36.99 RDA 5:39.17 2.18
1981 URS 6:02.30 Great Britain 6:04.31 2.01
1980 RDA 5:49.05 Great Britain 5:51.92 2.87
1979 RDA 5:36.41 New Zealand 5:39.92 3.51
1978 RDA 5:54.25 RFA 5:55.17 0.92
1977 RDA 5:45.36 URS 5:50.71 5.35
Average 1.9
Standard Deviation 1.0

References

For results of all races in the World Rowing website https://worldrowing.com)

For results of the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ boat here: https://worldrowing.com/event/2016-world-rowing-under-23-championships/