Row Results
This is a study conducted by GRI (Growth Resources Institute) to analyze the results of the United States U23 Women’s 8+ at the World Rowing Championships in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in 2016. In our analysis of results at World Rowing Championship events, we found that the 2016 US Women’s U23 8+ had the most significant winning margin in all 8+ events at the Senior and U23 levels dating back to 1977.
The table below shows the results of men and women at the U23 (Under 23 years old) and senior categories at a World Championship level, Olympics included. Since we were interested in analyzing to test how much the first boat won, only the two first results are included in the table below. Weather conditions can significantly vary from race to race; thus, the time of the winning boat doesn't provide an accurate assessment of well it did when compared with other years. However, the margin between the first and second boat does.
Rowing Results Data
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | United States | 6:09.14 | Germany | 6:13.34 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | United States | 6:23.03 | Great Britain | 6:27.81 | 4.78 |
| 2021 | United States | 6:16.69 | Netherlands | 6:20.43 | 3.74 |
| 2019 | Netherlands | 6:17.93 | Great Britain | 6:22.52 | 4.59 |
| 2018 | Canada | 6:04.61 | Netherlands | 6:06.58 | 1.97 |
| 2017 | Canada | 6:09.89 | United States | 6:16.44 | 6.55 |
| 2016 | United States | 6:36.90 | Great Britain | 6:44.06 | 7.16* |
| 2015 | United States | 6:19.49 | Russia | 6:22.02 | 2.53 |
| 2014 | United States | 6:07.88 | Great Britain | 6:11.76 | 3.88 |
| 2013 | United States | 6:16.81 | Great Britain | 6:19.15 | 2.34 |
| 2012 | United States | 6:25.92 | Germany | 6:30.47 | 4.55 |
| 2011 | Canada | 6:03.23 | New Zealand | 6:06.02 | 2.79 |
| 2010 | United States | 6:31.97 | New Zealand | 6:36.48 | 4.51 |
| 2009 | Great Britain | 6:20.71 | United States | 6:21.80 | 1.09 |
| 2008 | United States | 6:36.01 | Poland | 6:39.72 | 3.71 |
| 2007 | Belarus | 6:15.20 | Germany | 6:15.43 | 0.23 |
| 2006 | United States | 6:06.68 | Belarus | 6:08.98 | 2.3 |
| Average | 3.6 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 |
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Great Britain | 5:26.51 | United States | 5:28.90 | 2.39 |
| 2022 | Great Britain | 5:51.71 | United States | 5:53.97 | 2.26 |
| 2021 | Great Britain | 5:34.32 | United States | 5:34.55 | 0.21 |
| 2019 | Great Britain | 5:34.30 | United States | 5:36.21 | 1.91 |
| 2018 | United States | 5:22.48 | Great Britain | 5:24.93 | 2.45 |
| 2017 | Netherlands | 5:29.55 | Romania | 5:31.57 | 2.02 |
| 2016 | Netherlands | 5:54.10 | Great Britain | 5:57.26 | 3.16 |
| 2015 | Germany | 5:33.56 | United States | 5:36.49 | 2.93 |
| 2014 | New Zealand | 5:28.82 | Australia | 5:30.45 | 1.63 |
| 2013 | New Zealand | 5:28.63 | United States | 5:31.79 | 3.16 |
| 2012 | United States | 5:47.66 | Germany | 5:48.22 | 0.56 |
| 2011 | United States | 5:24.31 | Czech Republic | 5:26.21 | 1.9 |
| 2010 | Germany | 5:44.78 | United States | 5:47.48 | 2.7 |
| 2009 | Poland | 5:32.77 | Germany | 5:34.11 | 1.34 |
| 2008 | United States | 5:49.42 | Canada | 5:53.30 | 3.88 |
| 2007 | Estonia | 5:33.90 | Germany | 5:34.29 | 0.39 |
| 2006 | Canada | 5:30.72 | Germany | 5:31.78 | 1.06 |
| 2005 | Romania | 5:50.90 | Italy | 5:51.82 | 0.92 |
| Average | 1.9 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 |
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Romania | 6:01.28 | United States | 6:03.73 | 2.45 |
| 2022 | Romania | 6:01.14 | Netherlands | 6:05.04 | 3.9 |
| 2021 | Canada | 5:59.13 | New Zealand | 6:00.04 | 0.91 |
| 2019 | New Zealand | 5:56.91 | Australia | 5:59.63 | 2.72 |
| 2018 | United States | 6:00.97 | Canada | 6:03.05 | 2.08 |
| 2017 | Romania | 6:06.40 | Canada | 6:07.09 | 0.69 |
| 2016 | United States | 6:01.49 | Great Britain | 6:03.49 | 2 |
| 2015 | United States | 6:05.65 | New Zealand | 6:08.52 | 2.87 |
| 2014 | United States | 5:56.83 | Canada | 5:59.66 | 2.83 |
| 2013 | United States | 6:02.14 | Canada | 6:07.04 | 4.9 |
| 2012 | United States | 6:10.59 | Canada | 6:12.06 | 1.47 |
| 2011 | United States | 6:03.65 | Canada | 6:04.39 | 0.74 |
| 2010 | United States | 6:12.42 | Canada | 6:16.12 | 3.7 |
| 2009 | United States | 6:05.34 | Romania | 6:06.94 | 1.6 |
| 2008 | United States | 6:05.34 | Netherlands | 6:07.22 | 1.88 |
| 2007 | United States | 6:17.21 | Romania | 6:18.34 | 1.13 |
| 2006 | United States | 5:55.50 | Germany | 5:57.29 | 1.79 |
| 2005 | Australia | 5:58.10 | Romania | 5:59.50 | 1.4 |
| 2004 | Romania | 6:17.70 | United States | 6:19.56 | 1.86 |
| 2003 | Germany | 6:41.23 | Romania | 6:44.63 | 3.4 |
| 2002 | United States | 6:04.25 | Australia | 6:05.10 | 0.85 |
| 2001 | Australia | 6:03.66 | Romania | 6:04.96 | 1.3 |
| 2000 | Romania | 6:06.44 | Netherlands | 6:09.39 | 2.95 |
| 1999 | Romania | 6:47.66 | United States | 6:48.81 | 1.15 |
| 1998 | Romania | 6:14.62 | United States | 6:15.81 | 1.19 |
| 1997 | Romania | 6:02.40 | Canada | 6:07.18 | 4.78 |
| 1996 | Romania | 6:19.73 | Canada | 6:24.05 | 4.32 |
| 1995 | United States | 6:50.73 | Romania | 6:52.76 | 2.03 |
| 1994 | Germany | 6:07.42 | United States | 6:08.24 | 0.82 |
| 1993 | Romania | 6:18.88 | United States | 6:20.42 | 1.54 |
| 1992 | Canada | 6:02.62 | Romania | 6:06.26 | 3.64 |
| 1991 | Canada | 6:28.20 | URS | 6:28.73 | 0.53 |
| 1990 | Romania | 5:59.26 | United States | 6:01.67 | 2.41 |
| 1989 | Romania | 6:07.92 | Germany | 6:08.19 | 0.27 |
| 1988 | RDA | 6:15.17 | Romania | 6:17.44 | 2.27 |
| 1987 | Romania | 6:55.61 | United States | 6:57.27 | 1.66 |
| 1986 | URS | 6:08.76 | RDA | 6:09.77 | 1.01 |
| 1985 | URS | 6:14.00 | RDA | 6:14.89 | 0.89 |
| Average | 2.1 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 |
| Year | Winning Crew | Time | Second Place | Time | Margin(sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Great Britain | 5:24.20 | Netherlands | 5:25.23 | 1.03 |
| 2022 | Great Britain | 5:24.41 | Netherlands | 5:25.52 | 1.11 |
| 2021 | New Zealand | 5:24.64 | Germany | 5:25.60 | 0.96 |
| 2019 | Germany | 5:19.41 | Netherlands | 5:19.96 | 0.55 |
| 2018 | Germany | 5:24.31 | Australia | 5:26.11 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | Germany | 5:26.85 | United States | 5:28.45 | 1.6 |
| 2016 | Great Britain | 5:29.63 | Germany | 5:30.96 | 1.33 |
| 2015 | Great Britain | 5:35.18 | Germany | 5:36.36 | 0.18 |
| 2014 | Great Britain | 5:24.11 | Germany | 5:24.77 | 0.66 |
| 2013 | Great Britain | 5:30.35 | Germany | 5:30.89 | 0.54 |
| 2012 | Germany | 5:48.75 | Canada | 5:49.98 | 1.23 |
| 2011 | Germany | 5:28.81 | Great Britain | 5:30.83 | 2.02 |
| 2010 | Germany | 5:33.84 | Great Britain | 5:34.46 | 0.62 |
| 2009 | Germany | 5:24.13 | Canada | 5:27.15 | 3.02 |
| 2008 | Canada | 5:23.89 | Great Britain | 5:25.11 | 1.22 |
| 2007 | Canada | 5:34.92 | Germany | 5:37.19 | 2.27 |
| 2006 | Germany | 5:21.85 | Italy | 5:23.29 | 1.44 |
| 2005 | United States | 5:22.75 | Italy | 5:24.01 | 1.26 |
| 2004 | United States | 5:42.48 | Netherlands | 5:43.75 | 1.27 |
| 2003 | Canada | 6:00.44 | United States | 6:01.46 | 1.02 |
| 2002 | Canada | 5:26.92 | Germany | 5:28.16 | 1.24 |
| 2001 | Romania | 5:27.48 | Croatia | 5:28.47 | 0.99 |
| 2000 | Great Britain | 5:33.08 | Australia | 5:33.88 | 0.8 |
| 1999 | United States | 6:01.58 | Great Britain | 6:03.27 | 1.69 |
| 1998 | United States | 5:38.78 | Germany | 5:39.48 | 0.7 |
| 1997 | United States | 5:27.20 | Romania | 5:27.76 | 0.56 |
| 1996 | Netherlands | 5:42.74 | Germany | 5:44.58 | 1.84 |
| 1995 | Germany | 5:53.40 | Netherlands | 5:55.54 | 2.14 |
| 1994 | United States | 5:24.50 | Netherlands | 5:25.10 | 0.6 |
| 1993 | Germany | 5:37.08 | Romania | 5:39.33 | 2.25 |
| 1992 | Canada | 5:29.53 | Romania | 5:29.67 | 0.14 |
| 1991 | Germany | 5:50.98 | Canada | 5:51.68 | 0.7 |
| 1990 | RFA | 5:26.62 | Canada | 5:27.57 | 0.95 |
| 1989 | RFA | 5:43.88 | RDA | 5:45.70 | 1.82 |
| 1988 | RFA | 5:46.05 | URS | 5:48.01 | 1.96 |
| 1987 | United States | 5:58.83 | Germany | 6:01.94 | 3.11 |
| 1986 | Australia | 5:33.54 | URS | 5:37.61 | 4.07 |
| 1985 | URS | 5:33.71 | Italy | 5:34.58 | 0.87 |
| 1984 | Canada | 5:41.32 | United States | 5:41.74 | 0.42 |
| 1983 | New Zealand | 5:43.39 | RDA | 5:35.94 | 1.55 |
| 1982 | New Zealand | 5:36.99 | RDA | 5:39.17 | 2.18 |
| 1981 | URS | 6:02.30 | Great Britain | 6:04.31 | 2.01 |
| 1980 | RDA | 5:49.05 | Great Britain | 5:51.92 | 2.87 |
| 1979 | RDA | 5:36.41 | New Zealand | 5:39.92 | 3.51 |
| 1978 | RDA | 5:54.25 | RFA | 5:55.17 | 0.92 |
| 1977 | RDA | 5:45.36 | URS | 5:50.71 | 5.35 |
| Average | 1.9 | ||||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 |
Margin's Plot
Results Analysis
In order to test the hypothesis that the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ result was outstanding, we needed to compare it with others at a similar world championship level. We analyzed the winning margin for all 8+ events at the World Championships and Olympics for U23 Women, U23 Men, Senior Women and Senior Men. Note that U23 championship for men and women only started in, respectively, 2005 and 2006.
Anti-doping has been a concern in rowing since the 1960s. FISA (International Rowing Federation) implemented its first anti-doping regulation in 1976, long before WADA (World Anti-Doping Agency) was established in 1999 and before the anti-doping code was adopted at the Sydney Games in 2000. Thus the consideration of results starting from 1977.
Of the 17 data points collected on the U23 Women’s category, the 2016 US 8+ was the only crew to have a winning margin over 7 seconds, an incredible 3.56 seconds above the average winning margin. Furthermore, across all 122 data points collected, we found the average winning margin to be 2.05 sec, 5.11 sec less than the 7.16 sec winning margin of the 2016 USA Women’s 8+.
We didn't find any evidence that the 2016 results would result from any external uncommon factor, such as the weather conditions at a specific location on the water. All athletes complied with doping regulations. Other boats from Great Britain, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, and Germany were equally engaged in the race.
Addtional Notes
The overall purpose of the study is to 1) validate that the results of the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ team were uncommon by contrasting them with other rowing events in the same category and 2) bring explanations of those results from which we can learn from, in rowing, sports and also in business.
We were fortunate to obtain GRI's behavior-factor profiles of the team before the race, providing additional input on their individual character, style, and what was termed their quiet diversity afterward. Individual interviews were conducted at the end 2023 to further progress in our research and analyze the crew's exceptional winning margin.
References
For results of all races, see the World Rowing website here: https://worldrowing.com)
For results of the 2016 U23 USA Women 8+ boat here: https://worldrowing.com/event/2016-world-rowing-under-23-championships/